Why has the container shipping industry been riding waves of chaos for so long—and is calmer water finally ahead?
The global container shipping market has had a rollercoaster decade. From COVID-19 port closures and post-pandemic bottlenecks to geopolitical disruptions, overcapacity, and volatile demand—it’s been one long headache for shippers, carriers, and port authorities alike. But now, in the second quarter of 2025, the narrative is starting to shift.
Some signs are subtle, like stabilising freight indices. Others, such as India’s strategic port expansions and new international trade agreements, hint at broader structural change. While it’s far from smooth sailing, optimism is cautiously creeping back into a sector that desperately needs a break.
Green Shoots in a Bruised Market
After a turbulent 2023–24 dominated by plummeting freight rates and excess vessel capacity, 2025 has ushered in modest but meaningful improvements. Drewry’s World Container Index shows signs of flattening, with specific Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes experiencing mild rebounds. Though far from a bull market, the worst may be behind us.
Shipping analysts are highlighting a key trend: rationalisation. Carriers, stung by the chaos of the past few years, are showing more restraint in adding capacity. This more measured approach is helping bring balance back to a once-overheated sector.
India’s Maritime Moves Are Changing the Game
India, often overlooked in global shipping narratives, is asserting itself with impressive tenacity. The New Mangalore Port Authority recently celebrated a record 46 million metric tonnes in cargo throughput. Meanwhile, the new Vizhinjam International Seaport in Kerala is now operational—India’s first deep-water transshipment port designed to reduce dependence on Colombo and Singapore.
Further east, the proposed Galathea Bay project in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands aims to create a strategic transshipment hub in the Indian Ocean. For a country sandwiched between Suez and Malacca, these upgrades are not just about capacity—they’re about control.
Geopolitics: The Eternal Wildcard
Unfortunately, not everything is sunny. The Red Sea crisis, fuelled by conflict spillovers and piracy threats, has led to widespread carrier rerouting. Vessels detouring around Africa add weeks to transit times and spike fuel costs. Insurance premiums for certain zones are creeping upward again.
But shippers have learned their lesson: resiliency and flexibility are now baked into strategy. Many have diversified sourcing regions and are investing in smarter, tech-driven logistics solutions to weather the next global disruption—whenever it comes.
Technology, Sustainability, and the Future of Freight
Tech innovation remains a double-edged sword in shipping. On one hand, AI-powered scheduling, blockchain-based tracking, and automated port terminals are streamlining operations. On the other, the capital investment required is massive—and many ports and carriers still lack the digital maturity to implement these tools at scale.
Sustainability is also back in the spotlight, with the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) doubling down on emissions regulations. Expect a growing focus on green corridors, alternative fuels (like methanol and ammonia), and retrofitted vessels to meet compliance targets by 2030.
From Chaos to Control – How India Is Seizing the Maritime Moment
In 2020, India’s container traffic faced major congestion at ports like Nhava Sheva and Chennai. Delays were common, infrastructure was creaking, and over-reliance on foreign transshipment points limited its role in global trade.
Fast forward to 2025, and the transformation is palpable. At Vizhinjam, ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs) can now dock directly—cutting journey times, reducing costs, and boosting export competitiveness. This isn’t just about handling more boxes. It’s about reshaping regional logistics ecosystems and shifting the power balance in Asia’s favour.
India’s integrated port-led development strategy (Sagarmala) and increasing collaboration with BIMSTEC nations are laying the groundwork for long-term shipping relevance. While still a work in progress, it’s a sign that long-overlooked economies are taking bold steps to shape maritime futures.
“Shipping isn’t just about boxes on boats—it’s about control, strategy, and economic identity.”
— Arvind Kumar, Indian Ports Association
The global container shipping market isn’t in the clear yet, but there are clear indicators that it’s headed towards a more balanced and intelligent future. Investment in port infrastructure, more measured capacity expansion, and the embrace of digital and sustainable technologies are all steps in the right direction.
As India asserts itself and global players recalibrate strategies, 2025 may well be remembered as the year the tide began to turn—for good.
